2 out of 5 votes for the Liberal Democrats are tactical

Verian’s latest UK General Election poll reveals:

• 44% of those planning to vote Liberal Democrat in the 2024 UK General Election are doing so on a tactical basis – as they would actually prefer another party to win the election
• 16% of those planning to vote Labour in 2024 are similarly voting on a tactical basis vs 6% of votes for the Conservatives
• Labour has a 17-point lead over the Conservatives
• Support for Reform UK has increased this week by 3-points to 16% of the vote share
• The economy and NHS continue to be the two most important issues for likely voters

Verian’s research took place between the afternoon of 21^st June and the morning of 24^th June 2024, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building – randomly selecting GB residents to invite - provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling.

General Election voting intentions (21st June - 24th June)

• • Labour 38% (-1 vs previous poll published on 19^th June)
  • Conservative 21% (no change)
  • Reform UK 16% (+3)
  • Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
  • Green 8% (+1)
  • SNP 3% (no change)

Compared to our previous poll support for Labour has remained stable and support for Reform UK has increased. There is some evidence that this increase has come at a cost to the Conservatives.

Key campaign issues

The economy is the most important issue for people when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming UK General Election, followed by the NHS and then immigration.

The top three most important issues for people have been consistent in our polling each week since the UK General Election was announced.

• The economy – 31% (-3 vs previous poll published on 19 June)
• The NHS – 30% (+4)
• Immigration 15% (+1)
• The environment 7% (+1)
• Reducing Crime 5% (-1)
• Education 4% (+1)

Among those that voted in the 2016 EU Referendum, Leave voters are more likely to prioritise immigration compared to those that voted Remain:

• Immigration is the most important issue (31%) for those that voted Leave in 2016, followed by the economy (27%) and the NHS (25%).
• Among Remain voters, the economy and the NHS are the joint most important issues (35% selecting each), followed by the environment (11%). Only 4% of those that voted Remain cite immigration as the most important issue when deciding who to vote for.

Views on the next Prime Minister

When asked to choose between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer as the best leader for Britain, one third (34%) chose Keir Starmer, compared to 16% who chose Rishi Sunak. While two in five (39%) people chose neither and 11% do not know.

Tactical voting

There is evidence of tactical voting in the upcoming election, particularly for votes for the Liberal Democrats, and to a lesser extent Labour:

• Two in five (44%) of those currently planning to vote Liberal Democrat say they are voting Liberal Democrat in their constituency even though they would actually prefer that another party wins the election. Only half (52%) of people intending to vote for the Liberal Democrats express that they would like the party to win the election.
• While four in five (78%) of those that say they will vote Labour say they are voting for Labour because they would like them to win the election, 16% are voting for them on a tactical basis – as they would prefer that another party wins the general election.

There is evidence that tactical voting has limited benefit for the Conservative party:

• Of current Conservative supporters, 87% are voting for them because they want them to win the election. Only 6% of current Conservative voters appear to be voting for them on a tactical basis – supporting them despite favouring another party.

Methodological information

A total of 1,047 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the afternoon of the 21^st June and the morning of 24^th June 2024. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 10am on 26^th June 2024.

Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. 

Since our last poll we have made the following changes:

• Now that voter registration has closed, those that indicate they are not registered (or who do not know whether they are registered) are not included in our final voting intentions.
• We are no longer prompting for UKIP at the voting intention question – as they are only standing in 24 constituencies.

Media enquiries

For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact Lois.Taylor@veriangroup.com or PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com