Reform UK support levels off as Labour lead 18-points over Conservatives

Verian’s research took place between the afternoon of 14th June and the morning of 17th June 2024, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building – randomly selecting GB residents to invite - provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling. 

General Election voting intentions (14th – 17th June) :

• Labour 39% (-2 vs previous poll published on 12th June)
• Conservative 21% (+1)
• Reform UK 13% (-2)
• Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
• Green 7% (-1)
• SNP 3% (no change)
• Other 4% (+1)

Since our previous poll, support for Reform UK has levelled off. The Liberal Democrats have seen a small rise in support and there is some evidence to suggest this is due to tactical voting. Among likely Liberal Democrat voters, two-in-five (39%) say they are voting Liberal Democrat even though they would prefer another party to win the election. 

Key campaign issues

The economy is the most important issue for people when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming UK general election, followed by the NHS and immigration. The top three most important issues for likely voters have been consistent in our polling each week since the UK General Election was announced.

• The economy – 34%
• The NHS – 26%
• Immigration 14%
• Reducing Crime 6%
• The environment 6%
• Education 3%

Views on the next Prime Minister

When asked to choose between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer as the best leader for Britain, four in ten (38%) chose Keir Starmer, compared to 15% who chose Rishi Sunak. A similar proportion (37%) chose neither and 10% do not know.

Key differences between 2016 Leave and Remain voters 

Brexit has not been a focus for the major parties on the campaign trail so far. However, the 2016 EU Referendum still divides voters, with Leave voters split between the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Labour party, while Remain voters predominantly say they will vote Labour in the upcoming election:

• Among likely voters that voted Leave in 2016, 30% say they will vote Conservative in the coming election, while a similar proportion (29%) say they will vote for Reform UK. A fifth (21%) say they will vote for Labour.
• Half (51%) of likely voters that voted Remain in 2016, state they will vote Labour, while 16% will vote Conservative and 15% for the Liberal Democrats. Only 3% say they will vote Reform UK.

Although the economy is the most important issue for both Leave and Remain voters when deciding who to vote for, Leave voters are more likely than Remain voters to prioritise immigration.

• For Leave voters, the economy and the NHS are the joint most important issue (28% selecting each), followed by immigration (26%).
• 38% of Remain voters cite the economy as the most important issue just under a third (30%) say the NHS, followed by the environment (8%). Only 7% of Remain voters say immigration is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for.

Remain voters are more pessimistic than Leave voters about the state of the economy.

• 44% of Remain voters say that the economy is doing worse than it was 12 months ago, 40% say it is doing much the same, and 16% say it is doing better.
• Meanwhile 36% of Leave voters say the economy is doing worse than it was 12 months ago, 44% think it is doing much the same, and 21% better.

Verian's UK CEO, Craig Watkins, comments: "Almost 8 years on from the referendum, the way people voted on the issue of Brexit  is still a predictor of people’s priorities when deciding who to vote for . For Leave voters, the economy and the NHS are the joint most important issue, followed closely by immigration. Whilst Remain voters cite the economy as clearly the most important issue followed closely by the NHS and then the environment, rather than immigration."

Methodological information

A total of 1,034 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the afternoon of the 14^th June and the morning of 17^th June 2024. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 1pm on 19^th June 2024.

Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is much more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.

Since our previous poll (published 12th June), our headline voting intention now incorporates a squeeze question (to get an indication of which way non-disclosers are leaning), and an imputed voting intention for those who have not stated a preference (at either the main voting intention question or at the squeeze). This makes only a very small difference to the headline figures. Under our previous approach, the overall voting intention figures would have been: Labour 40% (-1 v previous poll), Conservative 20% (nc v previous poll), Reform UK 13% (-2), Liberal Democrats 13% (+2), Green 7% (-1), SNP 3% (nc), and Other 4% (+1).

Media enquiries

For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact Lois.Taylor@veriangroup.com or PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com