Labour support slips amid widespread concerns about the economy

Verian’s first political opinion poll since the 2024 General Election campaign shows support for Labour dropping as the general public continue to be concerned about the economy.

Verian’s research took place between 18^th and 23^rd September 2024, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling.

General Election voting intentions (18 - 23 September 2024)

• Labour 31% (-4 compared with 2024 GB election results)
• Conservative 26% (+2)
• Reform UK 17% (+2)
• Liberal Democrat 13% (no change)
• Green 7% (no change)
• SNP 2% (-1)
• Other 3% (-1)

Key policy issues

The economy and the NHS are currently the most important issues for the UK government to tackle to improve public life, with immigration third.

• The economy – 33%
• The NHS – 26%
• Immigration 21%
• Reducing crime 7%
• The environment 5%
• Education 2%

Among those that voted for Labour at the 2024 General Election, the NHS is the most important issue (39%), ahead of the economy (34%), whereas only 8% of this group selected immigration. In contrast, immigration is the most important issue for 36% of Conservative voters and 68% of Reform UK voters.

Economic outlook

The general population remain largely pessimistic about the economy and future prospects.

A third (36%) think the economy is doing worse than a year ago, half (51%) think it is doing much the same, and only 13% think it is doing better.

Looking ahead, one-in-six (17%) expect the economy to be doing better in a year’s time. Meanwhile, half (48%) expect the economy to be doing much the same as it is now, and a third (35%) expect it to be doing worse than it is now.

Despite a fall in inflation, cost of living challenges persist and people are finding it increasingly difficult to manage:

• Half (53%) are finding it harder to meet their monthly household budget than a year ago,
• Two-in five (42%) are finding it about the same, and
• Only 6% are finding it easier.

Younger people are the most pessimistic about their current financial situation. Almost three-in-five (58%) of those aged 18-34 are finding it harder to meet their household budget than a year ago. This is compared with 49% of those aged 55 plus.

However, younger people are more optimistic about the future of the economy. 23% of 18-34s expect the economy to be doing better in a year, compared with just 11% of those aged 55+.

Methodological information

A total of 1,258 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the evening of the 18^th and 23^rd September 2024. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 27 September 2024.

Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is much more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2024 General Election voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.

Media enquiries

For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact Lois.Taylor@veriangroup.com or PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com