Verian’s research took place between the afternoon of 14th June and the morning of 17th June 2024, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building – randomly selecting GB residents to invite - provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling.
Since our previous poll, support for Reform UK has levelled off. The Liberal Democrats have seen a small rise in support and there is some evidence to suggest this is due to tactical voting. Among likely Liberal Democrat voters, two-in-five (39%) say they are voting Liberal Democrat even though they would prefer another party to win the election.
The economy is the most important issue for people when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming UK general election, followed by the NHS and immigration. The top three most important issues for likely voters have been consistent in our polling each week since the UK General Election was announced.
When asked to choose between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer as the best leader for Britain, four in ten (38%) chose Keir Starmer, compared to 15% who chose Rishi Sunak. A similar proportion (37%) chose neither and 10% do not know.
Brexit has not been a focus for the major parties on the campaign trail so far. However, the 2016 EU Referendum still divides voters, with Leave voters split between the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Labour party, while Remain voters predominantly say they will vote Labour in the upcoming election:
Although the economy is the most important issue for both Leave and Remain voters when deciding who to vote for, Leave voters are more likely than Remain voters to prioritise immigration.
Remain voters are more pessimistic than Leave voters about the state of the economy.
Verian's UK CEO, Craig Watkins, comments: "Almost 8 years on from the referendum, the way people voted on the issue of Brexit is still a predictor of people’s priorities when deciding who to vote for . For Leave voters, the economy and the NHS are the joint most important issue, followed closely by immigration. Whilst Remain voters cite the economy as clearly the most important issue followed closely by the NHS and then the environment, rather than immigration."
A total of 1,034 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the afternoon of the 14th June and the morning of 17th June 2024. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 1pm on 19th June 2024.
Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is much more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.
Since our previous poll (published 12th June), our headline voting intention now incorporates a squeeze question (to get an indication of which way non-disclosers are leaning), and an imputed voting intention for those who have not stated a preference (at either the main voting intention question or at the squeeze). This makes only a very small difference to the headline figures. Under our previous approach, the overall voting intention figures would have been: Labour 40% (-1 v previous poll), Conservative 20% (nc v previous poll), Reform UK 13% (-2), Liberal Democrats 13% (+2), Green 7% (-1), SNP 3% (nc), and Other 4% (+1).
For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact Lois.Taylor@veriangroup.com or PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com
This content was issued under our former global brand name, Kantar Public.