Labour lead extends to 21-points as Reform UK affects Conservative support

Verian’s research took place between the afternoon of 7^th June and the morning of 10^th June 2024, using our Public Voice random sample panel. Our restrictive method of panel-building – randomly selecting GB residents to invite, rather than allowing anyone to join - provides benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared to many other panels used in the UK for polling.

General Election voting intentions (7th June - 10th June)

• Labour 41% (nc vs previous poll published on 5th June )
• Conservative 20% (-3)
• Reform UK 15% (+6) 
• Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
• Green 8% (nc)
• SNP 3% (nc)
• Other 3% (nc)

Compared to our previous poll support for Labour has remained stable and support for Reform UK has increased. There is some evidence that this increase has come at a cost to the Conservatives.

Key campaign issues

The economy remains the most important issues for voters when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming UK general election, followed by the NHS and immigration.

• The economy – 32%
• The NHS – 27%
• Immigration 15%
• The environment 4%
• Education 4%
• Reducing Crime 3%

Views on the next Prime Minister

When asked to choose between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer as the best leader for Britain, four in ten (39%, +5 vs 5^th June) people chose neither. Over a third (36%, -1) chose Keir Starmer, compared to 15% (-3) who chose Rishi Sunak. 10% (-1) do not know.

Shifts in 2019 voters

Support among Conservative 2019 voters is shifting away from the Conservatives, while Labour is retaining support among Labour 2019 voters.

• Of those who are likely to vote in the upcoming election, less than half (44%) of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now say they will vote Conservative again. While over a quarter (28%) of 2019 Conservative voters, now saying they will vote for Reform UK.
• In comparison, three quarters (76%) of likely voters who voted Labour in 2019 say they will voter Labour again at the upcoming election. Only 4% say they will now vote for Reform UK. Although Labour is losing some votes to the Green party (13% of 2019 voters).
• Labour are making some gains from the Liberal Democrats. Among likely voters, four-in-ten (40%) that voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2019 are planning to vote for Labour in the upcoming general election

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Conservative 2019 voters are most likely to say neither Rishi Sunak nor Keir Starmer are the best leader for Britain. While Labour 2019 voters are most likely to choose Keir Starmer.

• Half of Conservative 2019 voters (51%) say that neither Rishi Sunak nor Keir Starmer is the best leader for Britain. One third (34%) choose Rishi Sunak, while 10% choose Keir Starmer, and 5% say they don’t know.
• Two thirds (67%) of Labour 2019 voters say that Keir Starmer is the best leader for Britain, while a quarter (25%) choose neither and only 3% chose Rishi Sunak. 5% say they don’t know.

The shift among Conservative 2019 voters is likely to be related to policy concerns.

• One third (31%) of Conservative 2019 voters say immigration is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for at the general election. This is joint most important issue with the economy (31%). The NHS is the third most important issue (18%).
• The NHS is the most important issue for Labour 2019 voters (36%), followed by the economy (31%). Only 6% of Labour 2019 voters say immigration is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for. Suggesting that few of their previous voters are likely to defect to Reform UK.

Methodological information

A total of 1,305 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the afternoon of the 7th June and the morning of 10th June 2024. The survey data tables and further details on the methodological approach and weighting will be published on the Verian website by 1pm on 12th June 2024.

Our sample was drawn from Verian’s random sample panel Public Voice. This panel is used extensively for social research commissioned by government, academic and third sector organisations, including those based in the US and Europe. Membership of this panel is restricted to those living in a controlled sample of UK addresses drawn from the Royal Mail’s master database. This restrictive method of panel-building is relatively expensive but will ordinarily provide benefits in terms of sample and data quality when compared with a panel that any adult resident in the UK can join. Although the short-period fieldwork web-only protocol used for this poll is much more limited than is typical for a social research survey, the demographic and political composition of the sample is only modestly degraded compared to what could be obtained using the full social research data collection protocol (two to three weeks using both web and telephone interview modes).

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, 2019 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.

Media enquiries

For further information on any of the data and findings from the report please contact Lois.Taylor@veriangroup.com or PressEnquiries@veriangroup.com