State elections in Germany in Thuringia and Saxony: a short analysis of the striking results

State elections in Germany in Thuringia and Saxony: a short analysis of the striking results

On 1 September 2024, the state election held in Thuringia, Germany, saw the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the strongest force in an election for the first time since its establishment. With 32.8% of the vote, they increased their score by 9.4% from the previous elections in 2019. This result was marked as a historic success for the party, as it was the first time a far-right political party had come first in an election in Germany since the end of World War II.

The strong support for the AfD in Thuringia was also reflected in the neighbouring region Saxony where they increased their vote share by 3.1% since the 2019 state elections to 30.6%. They came a close second behind the historical centre-right party of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which won 31.9% of the votes.

These two elections were also marked by an electoral breakthrough for the recently formed leftwing-conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which finished the election in third place in both länders, beating The Left (Die Linke) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) – the two main left-wing parties in Thuringia prior to this election.

These victories reflected the results from the European elections in Germany, where the far-right made significant gains in the same regions. Although the AfD only won 15.9% of the German vote, in the former East Germany, they garnered 30.7% of the votes – coming in first place, ahead of CDU with 23.2%.

The Spring 2024 Standard Eurobarometer survey (ST101), conducted by Verian for the European Commission, serves to gauge public opinion in the European Union and can help provide valuable insights into these striking results in Germany.

Both the AfD and BSW have strong stances against immigration, with the former echoing xenophobic and Islamophobic views. With this sentiment, we looked at data from the recent Standard Eurobarometer survey to help understand the views of citizens in Germany on issues concerning immigration and possible reasons for the shift in results.

The Standard Eurobarometer 101 revealed that 57% of respondents in Germany stated the immigration of people outside of the EU evoked a negative feeling in them, compared to 40% positive. This proportion was even higher in Thuringia, where two-thirds of respondents held negative sentiments (66%). Comparatively, results at the EU level were more balanced, with 50% holding negative attitudes and 46% positive.

Furthermore, our data indicates an increase in this result over the last four years. The Standard Eurobarometer 93.1 (conducted in Summer of 2020) revealed a more positive attitude of respondents in Germany towards those who immigrated from outside the EU (49% vs. 43% negative). The proportion of respondents who had a negative feeling towards this type of immigration increased by 14 percentage points.

Perceptions based on sociodemographic

A deeper look at the sociodemographic results in Germany allows us to bring to light important differences of perception depending on the age of the respondents.

An absolute majority of respondents between the ages of 15 and 34 state immigration of people from outside the EU evokes a positive feeling:

• 58% vs. 39% negative for respondents between 15 and 24
• 53% vs. 45% negative for respondents between 25 and 34.

This is the opposite for older generations, where an absolute majority has a negative feeling about immigration from people outside the EU:

• 62% vs. 36% positive for respondents between 55 and 64
• 70% vs. 26% positive respondents between 65 and 74.

The negative perception of immigration by the older generation likely participates to explain the strong results registered by the AfD and BSW. However, the extraordinarily high volatility and political independence of young voters, the strength and presences of the AfD in social media, and the dissatisfaction with the policies of the federal government are other significant factors that have shifted votes towards the AfD and BSW (see Appendix 1 and 2).

There is also a correlation between the age at which respondents completed their education and their perception of immigration from people outside the EU. Three-quarters of the respondents who finished their studies aged 15 or below and two-thirds of the respondents who finished their studies between 16 and 19 have a negative feeling towards it (76% and 66% respectively). In stark contrast, an absolute majority of respondents who finished their studies at 20 or above have a positive feeling about immigration of people from outside the EU (52%, vs. 44% negative), and close to three quarters of respondents who are still studying hold the same view (73% vs. 24%).

The overall concerns and negative attitudes towards immigration in Germany revealed in this Eurobarometer survey (ST101) help us understand some of the drivers behind BSW and AfD’s significant gains in Thuringia – even if they do not tell the whole story.

Even though migration has been a relevant and significant factor for the solid support of anti-immigration parties in the Thuringian State, it should not overshadow the existence of other motivations that also caused the shift from traditional parties to more extremist ones.

Immigration is regarded as the second most important issue in both Thuringian and German level, but it is less perceived as a priority on the state level (26%) than on the national level (30%). This apparent contradiction demonstrates the need to look for deeper causes in voters’ turning towards extremist parties.

The Spring 2024 Standard Eurobarometer (ST101) reveals that almost half of respondents from Thuringia consider rising prices, inflation and cost of living as the most important issue Germany is currently facing (46%), while only one-third of the respondents from Germany believe so. This argument is supported by the exit poll data in Thuringia (see Appendix 3).

The same Eurobarometer (ST101) also shows high levels of respondents in Thuringia who are unsatisfied with how democracy works in Germany, with 82% of respondents expressing their dissatisfaction (vs. 18% who are satisfied). Comparatively, in Germany as a whole, a majority of respondents are satisfied (61% vs. 38%).

With less intensity, a similar trend can be observed regarding the extent to which people feel their voice counts in Germany. When asked about this, an absolute majority of respondents from Thuringia disagreed that their voice counts (56% disagree vs. 43% agree), while less than a quarter across Germany felt the same way (23% disagree vs. 75% agree). Studies from Infratest dimap, BMI and BPA state many people in East Germany feel like second-class citizens and feel inadequately represented in business, the media and other institutions. A feeling that has remained more than 30 years after reunification,

It must also be noted that although the AfD and BSW are both aligned relating to anti-immigration programmes, their economic proposals differ. The AfD supports policies of economic liberalism and free market, while BSW aims at intervening in national economy to favour small business and weaken the multinational companies.

Additional note to the state election in Brandenburg on 22 September:

The third state election in the former East Germany took place last Sunday and the pattern of strengthening the political margins continued. After a highly polarised election campaign with mobilisation, counter-mobilisation and a race to catch up, the SPD was able to narrowly beat the AfD, which performed similarly strongly as in Saxony and Thuringia. The BSW enters the state parliament as the third strongest force and is just ahead of the conservative CDU, which faced a historic low in Brandenburg.

Appendix

Appendix 1: Voters of the AfD by age in Thuringia state election 2024

Appendix 2: Voters of the BSW by age in Thuringia state election 2024

Appendix 3: Voting behaviour by assessment of the personal economic situation (bad vs. good) in Thuringia state election 2024

Source: Infratest dimap Election reporting for ARD (First German Television)