Security, Europe! How the Polish Presidency Aligns with European Public Opinion

Context: The Polish Council Presidency

On 1 January 2025, Poland took over the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union. Beyond organising and chairing Council meetings, the Presidency provides Poland, the fifth largest country of the EU in terms of population, with the opportunity to shape EU priorities and broker consensus on critical issues.

Assuming this role amid significant geopolitical uncertainty, including Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasised the need for European unity and strength: "If Europe is powerless, it will not survive... Let's do everything to make Europe strong again."

Poland’s Presidency programme, Security, Europe!, is strongly influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine and its consequences. The programme prioritises seven security dimensions: defence and security, protection of people and borders, resistance to foreign interference and disinformation, energy security and freedom of business, energy transition, competitive and resilient agriculture, and health security. This analysis evaluates how these priorities align with European citizens' priorities, as revealed in the latest Eurobarometer survey of autumn 2024 (ST102), conducted by Verian for the European Commission.

Key takeaways

1. The Polish Presidency’s priorities align closely with European citizens’ concerns, including defence, migration, energy, and disinformation.
2. While the priorities resonate broadly with Europeans, support for certain measures connected to these priorities—such as financial and military aid to Ukraine—has decreased over the past years.
3. Despite public support for many priorities, effective action requires unity among EU Member States to address these shared challenges amidst external pressures and internal divisions.

Analysis of European public opinion on the Presidency’s programme

The Polish programme is shaped by ongoing geopolitical crises, particularly Russia’s war in Ukraine, and focuses on strengthening EU defence capacity and support for Ukraine. These issues resonate strongly with European citizens and satisfaction with the EU’s response is high:

• 31% of Europeans identify the war in Ukraine as the most critical issue facing the EU, ahead of all other dimensions tested, and this item ranks among the top three concerns in all Member States except Greece.
• 55% of EU citizens are satisfied with the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion, although satisfaction varies significantly between countries (highest in Portugal (79%), Poland (77%), and the Netherlands (71%); lowest in Greece and Slovenia (both 33%)).

The following sections examine in detail four of the programme’s seven priorities, focusing on those for which the Eurobarometer provides the most comprehensive data.

1. Defence and security: Alignment with Europeans’ Concerns

The programme emphasises strengthening European “defence readiness based on increased military spending” as well as “sustained support for Ukraine and its reconstruction”. In large parts, Eurobarometer data show a strong alignment of European public opinion with these priorities:

• Security and defence rank as the top priority where Europeans want the EU to act over the next five years.
• 79% of Europeans support a common defence and security policy among EU Member States, with majorities in favour of this in every Member State.
• 64% agree that more money should be spent on defence in the EU.

Support for Ukraine-related measures is generally high, although it varies:

• 87% of Europeans support providing humanitarian aid, including 44% who “totally agree” with this action.
• 68% back providing financial assistance for Ukraine.
• 58% approve financing the purchase and supply of military, although opposition to this is significant in countries such as Cyprus (74%), Bulgaria (68%) and Greece (67%).
• Notably, support for financial and military aid has constantly declined since the war began, dropping by 13 and 12 percentage points, respectively.

2. Protection of people and borders: A shared priority

A priority for the Polish Presidency will be to “address the challenges of migration and security at the EU’s external borders”. This widely aligns with the European public’s concerns:

• Immigration ranks second among Europeans’ top concerns both at the EU and national levels.
• Addressing migration is also the second-highest priority for medium-term EU action, underscoring the urgency of this issue.

3. Resistance to foreign interference and disinformation

Combatting disinformation is a key element of the Polish Presidency programme and resonates strongly with European citizens:

• 70% of Europeans frequently encounter news or information that they believe misrepresents reality or is even false.
• 82% consider disinformation as a problem for democracy.

4. Energy transition and independence

Amid the consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Polish programme sets out to “promote actions aimed at a full withdrawal from imports of Russian energy sources” as well as “a rapid and more internally consistent energy transition” of the EU. This aligns strongly with European public opinion:

• 80% believe reducing oil and gas imports and investing in renewables is important for the EU’s overall security.
• 79% of Europeans agree that the EU should reduce its dependency on Russian energy sources as soon as possible.

Conclusion and outlook

The analysis shows that the Polish Presidency’s programme aligns well with European public opinion on defence, migration, energy, and disinformation. While these priorities address pressing challenges, they reflect unresolved issues that have shaped Europe’s agenda for years.

In a Europe strained by external pressures such as Russia’s aggression and Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, internal divisions and fragility persist. Overcoming these divides and fostering unity among Member States will be critical to addressing these challenges effectively.