Voice of Ukraine

Our Voice of Ukraine longitudinal study continues with its eleventh wave of research, gathering insights from displaced Ukrainian nationals who are living in host countries across Europe since June 2022.

The data and evidence aim to provide valuable insight for governments and policymakers to make decisions and to plan effectively, particularly as the war continues and longer-term plans are being made by millions of Ukrainians in Europe.

A third of respondents expect the war to continue by the end of this year

We’re seeing an increase of respondents believing the war will continue by end of 2026, from 29% in Wave 10 to 33% in Wave 11. Since Wave 1, respondent opinions regarding the continuation of the war have varied. The substantial decrease observed between Wave 8 (June 2024) and Wave 9 (December 2024) can be related to a minor modification in the survey question, shifted from asking about the most likely ourcome of the war by the end of 2024 to by the end of 2026.

However, there’s been a steady decline in respondents who believe that Ukraine will win and Russia withdraw from all territory it currently occupies – dropping from 71% in October 2022, Wave 2 to 10% in January 2026, Wave 11. However, only 3% think Russia will win and annex big parts of Ukraine, a figure that has remained between the 0 to 5% since the start of the study.

When our research began in 2022, the majority of respondents (71%) believed the most likely outcome would be ‘Ukraine wins and Russia withdraws from all territory it currently occupies’. Nearly four years on, only 10% believe this is the most likely outcome. In January 2026, perception of the likely outcome is more fragmented, with no option attracting a majority of respondents.

Fewer displaced Ukrainians plan to return to Ukraine as uncertainty grows

The percentage of displaced Ukrainians who intend to go back at some point later has dropped from 59% in 2022 to 27% in January 2026.

While some of this sentiment has been replaced with uncertainty (almost a third of respondents in 2026 ‘Don’t know yet’), we have also seen a growth in those who intend to settle outside Ukraine. The proportion of respondents who do not intend to go back to Ukraine has risen from 8% in June 2022 to 26% in January 2026. However, this figure has decreased slightly since its peak (34%) in May 2025.

Everyday expenses paid through work income

Paid employment is the main financial source, with over half of respondents (59%) stating they use income from paid work to pay for their everyday expenses; nearly double since wave 1 (30%).

Financial support from the authorities of the country respondents reside in is the second source of income at 31%. Income from pensions at 13%, one of the highest since the start of the study.

Over half of respondents are staying in private rented accommodation

Most respondents are currently living in privately rented housing. Since the initial survey, there has been a rise in the number of people residing in their own private accommodation, now accounting for over half (56%) of participants. At the same time, the use of temporary housing solutions has decreased from January 2023 to January 2026:

• Hosted by a local family not known prior to arrival has decreased 14% to 3%
• In a reception center, refugee camp or pop-up container village declined from 5% to 3%
• Hosted by family members dropped 6% to 4%

Private accommodation is followed by 14% staying in separate accommodation provided by local authorities, 4% hosted by family members, and 3% staying with a host family they did not know prior to arrival.

Methodology

All questions were made optional in Wave 11. Our team aimed to reduce any sense of pressure while completing; respondents wouldn’t feel obligated to answer anything they weren’t comfortable with. Variations observed in Wave 11 data may be a result of participants choosing not to respond to certain questions rather than actual changes in their circumstances.